TECHNO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF OFFSHORE WIND ENERGY POTENTIAL IN LAMU, COASTAL KENYA

Abstract

Wind power generation has experienced a continuous attention and investment in Kenya. As a country, Kenya borders Indian Ocean that is rich of renewable energy sources such as the offshore wind and tidal waves. In Kenya, the World Bank’s funded “Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) has facilitated researches geared to estimate the Offshore Wind Energy (OWE) potentials. These researches have all been potential based. However, for an investment-oriented system, wind energy potential alone is never enough to serve as the only investment parameter. Today, no ocean energy resource system such offshore wind farm has been established to boost the energy requirement and development in Kenyan coastlines. The area of concern in Coastal Kenya is the Lamu. The choice for Lamu as the location of interest for this research work was motivated by expected increase in energy demand for industrialization and shortage of electricity generating plants in Lamu. The expected increase in energy demand is mainly attributed to the proposed development project at Lamu Port and its environs. Lamu Port has three operational berths, which are among the proposed thirty-two. Other consumers include the go downs, hotel industries and other businesses as well as domestic consumers. This research therefore, performed a comprehensive techno-economic feasibility and analysis from offshore wind energy generation system models that geared towards investment forecast in Lamu. To achieve the objectives of this research work, Lamu wind speed and wind direction data were accessed and analyzed during the attachment with Kenya Met. Department. The Lamu load profile data was accessed and analyzed during the attachment with Kenya Power and Lighting Company (KPLC) Limited. Necessary adjustments were made through Mathematical designs. Wind farm models were developed by using application software called Hybrid Optimization for Multiple Energy Renewables (HOMER). Based on the models realized, techno economic feasibility analysis was achieved. The analysis was made in terms engineering and financial results from the models. Under Vision 2030 projection, the following sets of results were realized: daily peak generation of 50,160 kW, Annual Energy Output (AEO) of 266,204,237 kWh, Net Present Cost (NPC) of $ 1,088,225.00, Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE) of $ 20.47/MWh, Pay Back Period (PBP) of 3.36 years, and Internal Rate Return (IRR) of 6.13% and Return of Investment (ROI) of 77.87%. Under Vision 2050 projection, the following set of results were realized: daily peak generation of 200,640 kW, AEO of 1,064,816,947 kWh, NPV of $ 285,447.70, LCOE of $ 5.37/MWh, PBP of 3.19 years, IRR of 4.05% and ROI of 76.95%. From the generation capacity and hence AEO achieved for OWFs under Visions 2030 and 2050 projections, would be capable of meeting the projected Lamu’s load demands in both scenarios. The values of LCOE, NPV, IRR and ROI would give positive margins, which are clear indications for profitability from Lamu OWFs projected in both scenarios. The PBP for Lamu OWFs projected in both scenarios would both be achieved before the end of the plant’s life-cycle period. From these indicators it would therefore be suitable to pursue Lamu OWF investment projects based on projected models under Visions 2030 and 2050.