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dc.contributor.authorCaldwell, Jamie M
dc.contributor.authorLaBeaud, A. Desiree
dc.contributor.authorLambin, Eric F
dc.contributor.authorStewart-Ibarra, Anna M.
dc.contributor.authorNdenga, Bryson A
dc.contributor.authorMutuku, Francis M
dc.contributor.authorKrystosik, Amy R. Krystosik
dc.contributor.authorAyala, Efraín Beltrán
dc.contributor.authorAnyamba, Assaf
dc.contributor.authorBorbor-Cordova, Mercy J
dc.contributor.authorDamoah, Richard
dc.contributor.authorGrossi-Soyster, Elysse N
dc.contributor.authorHeras, Froilán Heras
dc.contributor.authorNgugi, Harun N
dc.contributor.authorRyan, Sadie J
dc.contributor.authorShah, Melisa M
dc.contributor.authorSippy, Rachel
dc.contributor.authorMordecai, Erin A
dc.date.accessioned2021-06-07T08:05:20Z
dc.date.available2021-06-07T08:05:20Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.identifier.urihttps://ir.tum.ac.ke/handle/123456789/17411
dc.description.abstractClimate drives population dynamics through multiple mechanisms, which can lead to see mingly context-dependent effects of climate on natural populations. For climate-sensitive diseases, such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, climate appears to have opposing effects in different contexts. Here we show that a model, parameterized with laboratory measured climate-driven mosquito physiology, captures three key epidemic characteristics across ecologically and culturally distinct settings in Ecuador and Kenya: the number, timing, and duration of outbreaks. The model generates a range of disease dynamics consistent with observed Aedes aegypti abundances and laboratory-confirmed arboviral incidence with vari able accuracy (28–85% for vectors, 44–88% for incidence). The model predicted vector dynamics better in sites with a smaller proportion of young children in the population, lower mean temperature, and homes with piped water and made of cement. Models with limited calibration that robustly capture climate-virus relationships can help guide intervention efforts and climate change disease projections.en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherNature Commuicationsen_US
dc.subjectClimateen_US
dc.subjectmosquito-borne diseaseen_US
dc.subjectvariationen_US
dc.subjectdynamicsen_US
dc.titleClimate predicts geographic and temporal variation in mosquito-borne disease dynamics on two continentsen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US


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